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RB Leipzig vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

RB Leipzig has a 60% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Sat, Dec 5, 2026 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
6-0-3Rating 1838
Form: WWWLW
vs
Model Probability
60%
Draw 23%
18%
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-5Rating 1730
Form: LLLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.6%2.2%11.1%2.3%
If Win <1%4.0%4.0%6.1%<1%
If Draw <1%1.3%2.1%9.5%1.7%
If Lose <1%<1%1.9%12.7%2.8%

RB Leipzig

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 1.1%53.4%15.6%<1%<1%
If Win 1.1%59.5%15.3%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%47.4%16.1%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%39.3%15.2%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

RB LeipzigStatMainz
9Games played9
3.0Avg goals scored2.0
1.4Avg goals conceded2.1
67% / 0% / 33%Win / Draw / Loss33% / 11% / 56%
100% Home win % / Away win % 75%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
RB LeipzigStatMainz
9All-time wins (20 meetings, 4 draws)7
2Last 5 meetings (1 draws)2
2.1Average goals1.4
Last meeting (2026-01-31): RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz