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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 3 · Round 5
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

England vs Croatia Prediction & Win Probability

England has a 64% chance to win, with a 22% chance of a draw.

Rating 2010 · World #4
Form: WWWLW
VS
Rating 1838 · World #16
Form: LLLWL
Model Probability
64%
14%
Draw 22%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 3 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand8%90%2%<1%
England win 12%88%<1%<1%
Draw 3%97%<1%<1%
Croatia win <1%82%17%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%2%92%6%
England win <1%<1%91%9%
Draw <1%<1%98%2%
Croatia win <1%17%82%<1%

League A ยท Group 3

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Spain 4 12 2093 92% 8% <1% <1%
2 England 4 9 2010 8% 90% 2% <1%
3 Croatia 4 3 1838 <1% 2% 92% 6%
4 Czech Republic 4 0 1681 <1% <1% 6% 94%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
EnglandStatCroatia
7-1-2Won-Drawn-Lost5-0-5
2.9Avg goals scored1.6
1.3Avg goals conceded2.4
2010Rating1838
#4World rank#16

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
EnglandStatCroatia
4Wins (6 meetings, 2 draws)0
4Last 5 meetings (1 draw)0
2.5Average goals0.67
Last meeting (Sat, Oct 3, 2026, Nations League): Croatia 0–7 England