Final Score: Lightning 5 - Maple Leafs 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Lightning @ Maple Leafs
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Lightning | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 54 | 74 |
| Last 5 meetings | 1 | 4 |
| Average goals | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Last meeting | 4 | 2 |
| Stat | Lightning | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 60 | 63 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| Win percentage | 63% | 43% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 61% | 48% |
Recent Results
Lightning
@ Winnipeg Jets
Mar 5, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
@ Minnesota Wild
Mar 3, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
vs Buffalo Sabres
Feb 28, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ Carolina Hurricanes
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 9
4-5
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Feb 25, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs Florida Panthers
Feb 5, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 7
6-1
vs Buffalo Sabres
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
vs Boston Bruins
Feb 1, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 11
6-5
vs Winnipeg Jets
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Utah Mammoth
Jan 26, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
Maple Leafs
@ New York Rangers
Mar 5, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ New Jersey Devils
Mar 4, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 2, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Ottawa Senators
Feb 28, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ Florida Panthers
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 25, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
@ Edmonton Oilers
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
@ Calgary Flames
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Vancouver Canucks
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Seattle Kraken
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5