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Mainz vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Win Probability

Mainz has a 50% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Jan 29, 2027 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-5Rating 1730
Form: LLLWL
vs
Model Probability
50%
Draw 26%
24%
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
4-0-5Rating 1687
Form: WLLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Hamburger SV

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.0%1.1%14.2%3.0%
If Win <1%1.8%2.5%8.6%1.8%
If Draw <1%<1%1.2%14.6%2.4%
If Lose <1%<1%1.0%18.7%4.0%

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.9%2.5%11.4%2.0%
If Win <1%2.3%2.9%6.5%1.1%
If Draw <1%1.1%1.8%13.0%2.4%
If Lose <1%<1%1.3%18.0%3.9%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatHamburger SV
9Games played9
2.0Avg goals scored1.1
2.1Avg goals conceded2.2
33% / 11% / 56%Win / Draw / Loss44% / 0% / 56%
0% Home win % / Away win % 20%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatHamburger SV
8All-time wins (20 meetings, 6 draws)6
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-09-06): Hamburger SV 0–5 Mainz