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Union Berlin vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Union Berlin has a 38% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Apr 2, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1-4-4Rating 1685
Form: LDDDW
vs
Model Probability
38%
Draw 28%
34%
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-5Rating 1730
Form: LLLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.8%1.7%11.6%2.4%
If Win <1%2.4%3.4%6.7%1.3%
If Draw <1%1.0%1.9%11.8%1.7%
If Lose <1%<1%1.5%14.8%2.5%

Union Berlin

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%<1%<1%31.8%12.4%
If Win <1%<1%<1%26.6%8.8%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%30.5%14.5%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%35.1%17.7%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Union BerlinStatMainz
9Games played9
0.8Avg goals scored2.0
2.3Avg goals conceded2.1
11% / 44% / 44%Win / Draw / Loss33% / 11% / 56%
20% Home win % / Away win % 75%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Union BerlinStatMainz
8All-time wins (14 meetings, 5 draws)1
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
2.0Average goals1.0
Last meeting (2026-05-10): Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin