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Freiburg vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Freiburg has a 58% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Apr 16, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST
Bundesliga
Freiburg
6-1-2Rating 1824
Form: WWLLW
vs
Model Probability
58%
Draw 23%
19%
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-5Rating 1730
Form: LLLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.4%1.9%11.0%1.8%
If Win <1%3.0%2.7%7.5%<1%
If Draw <1%1.4%1.7%10.0%2.0%
If Lose <1%1.0%1.6%13.2%2.3%

Freiburg

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 1.0%52.2%15.9%<1%<1%
If Win 1.3%57.2%14.7%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%47.0%16.4%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%43.8%16.0%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

FreiburgStatMainz
9Games played9
2.2Avg goals scored2.0
1.1Avg goals conceded2.1
67% / 11% / 22%Win / Draw / Loss33% / 11% / 56%
80% Home win % / Away win % 75%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
FreiburgStatMainz
10All-time wins (31 meetings, 10 draws)11
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
1.2Average goals1.4
Last meeting (2026-04-12): Mainz 0–1 Freiburg