Mets @ Nationals

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Mets 4 - Nationals 6
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 1:05 PM ET
New York
Mets
74-87 Rating 1495
Form: WWLLW
4 – 6
Model Probability
50%
50%
Projected margin: New York Mets +0.1
Washington
Nationals
76-85 Rating 1460
Form: LWWWL
Nationals

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Mets Nationals
All-time wins 493 481
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.2 4.1
Last meeting 7 1

Key Season Stats

Stat Mets Nationals
Games played 161 161
Avg runs scored 4.3 5.1
Avg runs conceded 4.5 5.0
Win percentage 46% 47%
Away win % / Home win % 48% 48%